Actual Returns 2022: Important for investment portofolio in Box 3
The Dutch Supreme Court has ruled that since 2017 the Dutch Box 3 system has been in violation of European law. The reason: taxpayers paid too much tax whenever their actual returns were lower than the notional (forfaitaire) returns. Taxpayers are therefore entitled to a refund of the excess tax paid.
To remedy this, the counter-evidence scheme (tegenbewijsregeling) has been introduced. Starting in July 2025, you can report your actual Box 3 income using the Opgaaf Werkelijk Rendement form.
Letters from the Dutch Tax Authorities
You can only file once you have received a letter from the Tax Authorities. A separate letter will be sent for each tax year, which includes the notional return. This figure is necessary to complete the form correctly.
The first letters to be sent out will concern the 2022 tax year.
Why 2022 is particularly relevant
In 2022, many investors suffered negative results. Stock markets recorded significant losses, and bonds also performed poorly. If your actual returns were lower than the notional returns applied by the Tax Authorities, this may result in a refund.
In practice, this means that taxpayers with investment portfolios have a strong chance that their actual returns in 2022 were lower than the notional figures. This makes filing for 2022 particularly worthwhile.
At the same time, it is important to carefully assess your total wealth, not just your portfolio. Other asset categories, such as real estate, may also have had lower actual returns in 2022 compared to the notional return. Since differences can be substantial per asset category, it pays to run the numbers for your entire wealth for each tax year.
How Novera can support you
The counter-evidence scheme offers opportunities but also comes with complexity. Comparing actual returns to the notional return is not a simple calculation—you need to consider total wealth, changes in value during the year, income, and debts.
Novera can help you by:
• Calculating whether your actual return is lower than the notional return;
• Checking whether you are entitled to a refund;
• Preparing the required calculations and filing the form with the Tax Authorities.
This ensures you won’t miss out on opportunities and won’t pay unnecessary tax.
Did you incur losses in 2022 on investments or other assets? Then now is the time to examine whether the counter-evidence scheme could provide you with a tax advantage.
Overview: Returns on Equities and Second Homes
| Year | Notional Return (Tax Authorities) | Avg. Equity Return (Stock Index) | House Price Index (WOZ) |
| 2017 | 5.39% | 13.72% | 6.73% |
| 2018 | 5.38% | -10.02% | 8.25% |
| 2019 | 5.59% | 24.57% | 8.39% |
| 2020 | 5.28% | -1.71% | 6.48% |
| 2021 | 5.69% | 23.32% | 8.38% |
| 2022 | 5.53% | -7.97% | 20.33% |
| 2023 | 6.17% | 15.04% | 2.73% |
| 2024 | 6.04% | 8.43% | 1.61% |